As printed in the Burlington Post, August 5, 2009
The headlines blared last week that Canada’s recession is officially over. We have had so much doom and gloom in the last 12 months, and so many dire predictions and comparisons to the Great Depression, it’s hard to believe that this pronouncement has come so soon.
The Bank of Canada’s statement is based on the definition of a recession. According to economic theory, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline. Canada has experienced three consecutive quarters of decline, and according to the Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy is now expected to grow by a rate of 1.3 percent (annualized) in the current quarter. This, according to this strict definition, means the recession is over. However, this is just one economic indicator in a complex model of variables and assumptions.
My discussion with my clients, local business owners and other Burlingtonians elicits a much more cautious answer to the question, “Is the recession over?” The answer I hear most often is “It depends.”
For consumers, it depends what you are in the market for. With interest rates so low, it is a great time to buy a car or mortgage a new home. A pronouncement from the Bank of Canada about expected growth might just provide enough impetus to stimulate pent up consumer demand.
For employees, it depends on what industry you work in. For those working in traditional manufacturing jobs, like steel and automotive, the question becomes almost a moot point. This is because in any recovery, economists will tell you that job recovery will always lag behind and recover more slowly than the general economy. There will be rises in unemployment over the next six months, and there will be more job losses to come over that same term. This portion of economic theory leads our Federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to caution that “it’s too soon for him to declare the country’s recession has ended, even as some economic indicators point to a possible recovery.”
For business owners, it depends on whether they have been able to “weather the storm.” If you had a diversified business and if you had the financial means to ride out the recession, then you are hoping that the Bank of Canada pronouncement will release that pent up consumer demand.
My opinion has always been that for the most part, this recession was not as hard on Canada, or on Burlington, as the media may have portrayed. It does, however, depend on your point of view.
Francis Mackan
Chair, Burlington Chamber of Commerce